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SEPTEMBER 15,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

MORE SMILES FOR DONALD – FROM THE HILL:   Donald Trump opened up an 8-point lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa, a new poll finds.  Trump has 45 percent support to Clinton's 37 percent, according to a new Monmouth University survey released Thursday. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson had 8 percent, while Green nominee Jill Stein received 2 percent.  Trump led a July edition of the same poll by 2 points.  The GOP presidential nominee has improved among independent voters, leading Clinton, his Democratic rival, 44 percent to 29 percent.  The momentum in this presidential race is now clearly with Trump.  There'll be new poll numbers almost daily...and the big event, the first debate, a week from Monday.

HOW STRANGE –  FROM PJ MEDIA:  WASHINGTON – Chief Judge Beryl A. Howell, appointed by President Obama to the District Court for the District of Columbia, left out “so help me God” while administering the Oath of Allegiance at a naturalization ceremony Wednesday.  Howell asked the new U.S. citizens to raise their right hand and “repeat the ‘Oath of Allegiance’ after me.”According to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, the oath goes: "I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty, of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen; that I will support and defend the Constitution and laws of the United States of America against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I will bear arms on behalf of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform noncombatant service in the Armed Forces of the United States when required by the law; that I will perform work of national importance under civilian direction when required by the law; and that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; so help me God.”  It's hard to believe that leaving the final statement out was an accident.  The exclusion reflects a narrow, condescending attitude.

PHILOSOPHER AT WORK – FROM THE HILL:  Hillary Clinton framed her recent pneumonia diagnosis and break from the campaign trail as a wake-up call that reminded her why she's running for president.  "I certainly feel lucky — when I am under the weather, I can afford to take a few days off. Millions of Americans can't. They either go to work sick or they lose a paycheck," she told the crowd in Greensboro, N.C.  "They toss back some Tylenols, chug some orange juice and hope the cough or the virus goes away on its own."  Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, said that being off of the trail helped her sit with her thoughts and "reconnect with what this whole campaign is about."  I'm so moved.  I really am.  I'd be even more moved if Hillary could arrange for most Americans to get $250,000 to deliver a speech.  Then they could take those sick days off.  How about it, Hillary?

September 15, 2016       Permalink

 

A DANGER TO DEMOCRACY – AT 11:16 A.M. ET:  A free press is only valuable if it functions to high standards, serves as a watchdog over government, and has the confidence of the public.  The American press is failing, and the public is realizing it.  The result should not surprise us.  From Gallup: 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' trust and confidence in the mass media "to report the news fully, accurately and fairly" has dropped to its lowest level in Gallup polling history, with 32% saying they have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the media. This is down eight percentage points from last year. 

Gallup began asking this question in 1972, and on a yearly basis since 1997. Over the history of the entire trend, Americans' trust and confidence hit its highest point in 1976, at 72%, in the wake of widely lauded examples of investigative journalism regarding Vietnam and the Watergate scandal. After staying in the low to mid-50s through the late 1990s and into the early years of the new century, Americans' trust in the media has fallen slowly and steadily. It has consistently been below a majority level since 2007.

Gee, you don't think it has to do with liberal bias, do you?

While it is clear Americans' trust in the media has been eroding over time, the election campaign may be the reason that it has fallen so sharply this year. With many Republican leaders and conservative pundits saying Hillary Clinton has received overly positive media attention, while Donald Trump has been receiving unfair or negative attention, this may be the prime reason their relatively low trust in the media has evaporated even more. It is also possible that Republicans think less of the media as a result of Trump's sharp criticisms of the press. Republicans who say they have trust in the media has plummeted to 14% from 32% a year ago. This is easily the lowest confidence among Republicans in 20 years.

COMMENT:  The vote of no-confidence is well earned.  It's almost impossible to read The New York Times or to watch CNN during this election cycle.  Both organizations have some first-class reporters, but the slant is obvious to anyone watching or reading.  Why bother?

Will the media correct itself?  It's unlikely.  A biased organization tends to promote those who go along with the bias, and careerism rules journalism, as it does most fields.  One answer to bias thus far has been the internet, and I hope that continues.  Another answer has been the very fact that "media" is a news subject itself.  People are interested in what media does and how it works, and with that interest comes an ability to detect when something has gone wrong.

My guess is that some mainstream organizations won't even exist in ten years, victims of technological change and their own self-destructive tendencies.

September 15, 2016       Permalink

 

OUTSOURCING – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  A blow to American workers, and a help to Trump, if he knows how to use it.  From the Detroit Free Press:

Ford plans to eventually shift all North American small-car production from the U.S. to Mexico, CEO Mark Fields told investors Tuesday, even though the company's production investments in Mexico have become a lightning rod for controversy in the presidential election.

"Over the next two to three years, we will have migrated all of our small-car production to Mexico and out of the United States," Fields said at a daylong investor conference in Dearborn.

The news sparked a fresh round of criticism of Ford from Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump, who was campaigning in Flint on Wednesday.

"We shouldn’t allow it to happen. They’ll make their cars, they’ll employ thousands of people, not from this country, and they’ll sell their car across the border," Trump said during his visit. "When we send our jobs out of Michigan, we’re also sending our tax base."

The impact on Ford's U.S. employment will be minimal in the near-term. Ford already builds the Fiesta subcompact and the Fusion mid-size sedan in Mexico. There is an expectation that Ford will build a new Ranger mid-size pickup truck in Wayne and possibly a new Bronco compact sport-utility.

COMMENT:  Detroit used to be motor city.  Indeed, the great African-American-owned record company is called Motown.  Now Detroit is a wreck.

Trump should use the loss-of-jobs issue to maximum effect.  And he should use it in minority communities.  He won't come near getting a majority of the minority vote, but he can cut into it, and that's the Democratic base.

Our loss of manufacturing is not only a critical danger to our economy, it's a critical danger to national defense.  What happens in case of a major conflict?  Do we find suppliers overseas?

September 15, 2016       Permalink

 

STUNNING – AT 9:28 A.M. ET:  And this is from The New York Times, capital of the People's Republic of Hillaryland: 

With less than eight weeks before Election Day, Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in a tight contest, with both candidates still struggling to win the confidence of their respective bases, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll finds.

Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic nominee, has the support of 46 percent of likely voters nationwide, to 44 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republican, including those who said they were leaning toward a candidate. Looking more broadly at all registered voters, Mrs. Clinton holds a wider edge, 46 to 41 percent.

In a four-way race, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are tied at 42 percent each. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, has the support of 8 percent of likely voters, and the Green Party nominee, Jill Stein, takes 4 percent.

The third-party candidates draw their strongest support from younger voters. Twenty-six percent of voters ages 18 to 29 say they plan to vote for Mr. Johnson, and another 10 percent back Ms. Stein. A little more than one in five political independents say they will vote for one of the third-party candidates.

Discontent with the major party candidates is widespread. Among those who say they intend to vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, slightly more than half express strong support. The rest say that they harbor reservations about their candidate, or that they are simply voting to thwart the other nominee.

COMMENT:  All major polls are confirming the trend toward Trump, or away from Clinton, depending on the way you look at it.

But will the trend continue? 

Hillary has had an awful three weeks – including her illness and the accompanying cover-up, and her bizarre comment about "deplorable" Americans who support Trump.  Trump, by contrast, has been under new and improved management, and has largely been disciplined in delivering his message. 

That can all change in a flash, and you may be sure the Clinton press is preparing an all-out assault against Trump that will be brutal.

The first debate is a week from Monday.  If Trump falters, his momentum will stop.  If he trounces Hillary, it's off to the bank.

September 15,  2016     Permalink

 

 

 

SEPTEMBER 14,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:50 P.M. ET: 

MAJOR REAL ESTATE NEWS – FROM LONDON'S DAILY MAIL:   Multimillionaires eat at fancier restaurants, drive expensive cars, and live in secluded mansions, but they have always had to gas up their cars with the common folk – until now.  The swanky New York suburb of Greenwich, Connecticut, is about to be one of the first cities in the world to play host to a new, high-end gas station and convenience chain.
According to The Greenwich Time, the Guess Corporation, a North Carolina-based conglomerate that initially amassed a fortune in the diamond trade and has since expanded to other industries, selected Greenwich due to its well-heeled residents.  The gas-station-and-convenience-store-for-the-rich, which will be called GP Club, is scheduled to begin operations within the next year, according to Greenwich Time.   Anyone wishing to earn the privilege of fueling their car at GP Club will have to have a household net worth of at least $50million...While that may seem steep, these ultra-rich patrons will likely get a bang for their buck, as these locations – which will be styled like four-story mansions - will also offer other amenities including a waterpark, a steakhouse, and a designer clothing boutique.  There is also a 'sleeping suite,' business and video-conferencing centers, meeting rooms, a salon, and a medical clinic.  This is all while you're gassing up your car?  Why do I feel this is a waste of time?

OTHERS ARE WATCHING YOU – FROM THE HILL:  The head of the FBI on Wednesday defended putting a piece of tape over his personal laptop's webcam, claiming the security step was a common sense one that most should take.  “There’s some sensible things you should be doing, and that’s one of them,” Director James Comey said during a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  “You go into any government office and we all have the little camera things that sit on top of the screen,” he added. “They all have a little lid that closes down on them.  “You do that so that people who don’t have authority don’t look at you. I think that’s a good thing.”  Comey was pilloried online earlier this year, after he revealed that he puts a piece of tape over his laptop camera to keep away prying eyes. The precaution is a common one among security advocates, given the relative ease of hacking laptop cameras.  Good common sense.  I wonder if Hillary will take his advice.   She's very careful about security, you know.

WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY – FROM BUSINESS INSIDER:   Moody's analysts say Sears and Kmart don't have enough money — or access to money — to stay in business.  In a note published Wednesday, the analysts downgraded Sears' liquidity rating, saying the company is bleeding cash and will have to continue to rely on outside funding or the sale of assets, such as real estate, to sustain operations.  "We recognize the risks associated with relying on these sources and continued shareholder support to finance its negative operating cash flow which is estimated by Moody's to be approximately $1.5 billion this year," the analysts wrote.  Kmart in particular is at risk of shutting down, according to Moody's.  "The ratings... reflect our view on the uncertainty of the viability of the Kmart franchise in particular given its meaningful market share erosion," the analysts wrote.  How sad, especially for Sears, one of the legendary names in American commerce.  I look out my window and see a Sears sign in the distance, and think of Craftsman tools.

September 14,  2016     Permalink

 

INCREDIBLE – THE CORRUPTING INFLUENCE OF THE CLINTONS – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:   How many good people have been lured and compromised?  From the great Bill Gertz at the Washington Free Beacon: 

The U.S. intelligence community declined to conduct a required assessment of the damage to national security caused by former secretary of state Hillary Clinton sending and receiving secrets on a private email server.

“ODNI is not leading an [intelligence community]-wide damage assessment and is not aware of any individual IC element conducting such formal assessments,” Joel D. Melstad, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said.

The most sensitive classified information leaked and possibly obtained by foreign intelligence services included ultra-secret information on U.S. drone strikes, according to American intelligence officials.

James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, agreed with security officials who argued against the need to carry out the damage assessment. Intelligence officials argued in internal discussions that since many details of the drone missile program targeting terrorists were disclosed in earlier leaks unrelated to Clinton’s use of a personal email server, gauging the damage done by her conduct would be difficult, and possibly unnecessary.

Melstad, the DNI spokesman, declined further comment when asked the reasons behind Clapper’s decision not to launch the damage assessment.

Other officials said Clapper’s decision appeared based on political considerations and was an effort to avoid embroiling American intelligence agencies in charges they were attempting to influence the outcome of Clinton’s bid for the White House.

COMMENT:  Politics?  In Washington?  I can't believe our gracious leaders would be involved in anything like that, can you? 

This is a major scandal, a serious compromising of national intelligence and security.  A special prosecutor should be selected and ordered to clean the whole thing up. 

Quite a comedown from those World War II posters warning, "Loose lips sink ships." 

September 14, 2016       Permalink

 

DEMS WORRIED SICK OVER SICK HILLARY – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  She was never that popular among Democrats to start with, and her current illness, and the deceptions surrounding it, have increased antagonism toward her in the party.  How far will this go?  From Bloomberg:

Eight weeks from Election Day, Democrats are feeling queasy about Hillary Clinton's narrowing national and battleground-state lead over Donald Trump.

A race some had considered a layup for Clinton on Tuesday showed Trump within 2.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. The Democratic presidential nominee's stumbles over the weekend—from a botched response to a health incident to having to partially disavow her comment slamming “half” of Trump's supporters—has heightened concerns.

“I'm totally afraid. Donald Trump definitely has the chance to win. It's really close. Closing here in Pennsylvania and Florida,” said Clinton Barnes of Philadelphia, who attended President Barack Obama's rally there Tuesday for Clinton. “It's all spooky.”

“Hillary's been her own worst enemy,” he said. “People think she's dishonest.”

After an incident Sunday when her campaign brushed off rumors that something was amiss until a video clip showed her dizzy and stumbling into a van after a Sept. 11 commemoration event, former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell said Clinton would help herself by being more transparent.

“My advice is be transparent about everything and get it out early, because you minimize the damage you'll do by getting it out early,” Rendell said in an interview. “Getting things out early is always the best policy, whether you're a candidate or whether you're in public office.”

Rendell said he was “guardedly optimistic” Clinton would still win the election.

The disclosure that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia was a quintessentially Clintonian stumble, with her instinct for secrecy proving more damaging than the facts of the situation. Her campaign later confirmed Friday's diagnosis and her top spokespeople acknowledged they shouldn't have kept reporters in the dark for so long after questions were raised about why she had to leave Sunday's memorial abruptly.

COMMENT:  The polls right now are going in Trump's direction, but we still have almost two months to go before the election.

Clinton says she'll be back campaigning tomorrow, but to what degree?

The big date is September 26th, only a week from Monday.  That is the night of the first debate.  There will be three debates, but, if Hillary performs badly, or appears confused, it will be devastating, and possibly fatal to her campaign. 

September 14, 2016       Permalink

 

TRUMP GAINS – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  He's now up five points in the Los Angeles Times tracker.  And...there's a spurt in GOP voter registration.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in registering voters in three battleground states and kept their razor-thin advantage in Iowa — encouraging news for Donald Trump eight weeks before Election Day.

Republicans added hundreds of thousands of voters to the rolls since 2012 in states including Florida and Arizona, and narrowed the gap in North Carolina, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. In Iowa, Republicans prevented Democrats from surpassing them, aided by a court ruling upholding a ban on voting by ex-felons, who often register as Democrats.

As Election Day approaches, voter registration drives are in full swing.

Hillary Clinton's campaign is staging registration rallies and appealing in particular to non-whites and young people, who are more likely to vote early — if they vote at all. Trump is relying mostly on a base of white voters, urging supporters to be vigilant for voter fraud and "rigging."

"The Clinton campaign cannot come close to our output," said Sean Spicer, the Republican National Committee's chief strategist, in a campaign memorandum Monday.

The latest registration numbers aren't an assurance of new voters for Trump. Some changes reflect those who have died and been removed from the list, while others are inactive, not having voted in recent elections. In Florida, newly registered Hispanics are turning against the Republican nominee, stung by his anti-immigrant rhetoric. And Democrats historically have done well in signing up new voters in the final stretch.

COMMENT:  On balance, a gain for Trump in what is turning out to be a very close race.  Trump is also improving considerably as a candidate.

But the main question mark, at least this week, is Hillary Clinton's health.  She may well get through her current crisis, but one more "event" during the election campaign and she may suffer unrecoverable polling losses.  That's what has Democrats worried.

September 14,  2016     Permalink

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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